Influence of age and sex on longitudinal metabolic profiles and body weight trajectories in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Accurate characterization of how age influences body weight and metabolism at different stages of life is important for understanding ageing processes. Here, we explore observational longitudinal associations between metabolic health and weight from the fifth to the seventh decade of life, using carefully adjusted statistical designs. METHODS: Body measures and biochemical data from blood and urine (220 measures) across two visits were available from 10 104 UK Biobank participants. Participants were divided into stable (within ±4% per decade), weight loss and weight gain categories. Final subgroups were metabolically matched at baseline (48% women, follow-up 4.3 years, ages 41-70; n = 3368 per subgroup) and further stratified by the median age of 59.3 years and sex. RESULTS: Pulse pressure, haemoglobin A1c and cystatin-C tracked ageing consistently (P < 0.0001). In women under 59, age-associated increases in citrate, pyruvate, alkaline phosphatase and calcium were observed along with adverse changes across lipoprotein measures, fatty acid species and liver enzymes (P < 0.0001). Principal component analysis revealed a qualitative sex difference in the temporal relationship between body weight and metabolism: weight loss was not associated with systemic metabolic improvement in women, whereas both age strata converged consistently towards beneficial (weight loss) or adverse (weight gain) phenotypes in men. CONCLUSIONS: We report longitudinal ageing trends for 220 metabolic measures in absolute concentrations, many of which have not been described for older individuals before. Our results also revealed a fundamental dynamic sex divergence that we speculate is caused by menopause-driven metabolic deterioration in women.

Comparison of the Effect of Direct Breastfeeding, Expressed Human Milk, and Infant Formula Feeding on Infant Weight Trajectories: A Systematic Review.

Background: Formula and breastfeeding are known factors associated with infant weight trajectories. Evidence exploring the effect of expressed human milk feeding on infant weight in the community setting has not been well synthesized. Objectives: This systematic review examined (1) weight changes among infants fed expressed human milk and (2) differences in weight change between infants fed expressed human milk and infants fed at the breast or infant formula via bottle. Methods: A comprehensive search of the literature was conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The quality of each study was appraised using the Joanna Briggs Critical Appraisal Tools. Results: A total of six studies met the eligibility criteria and included a total of 5,152 infants. The within-subject analysis identified only 31 infants strictly or predominantly fed expressed human milk. The between-subject analysis comparing expressed human milk feeding to the available comparison groups (formula-fed or direct at the breastfed) revealed that higher weight gains were observed in the weight trajectories among infants in the bottle or formula-fed conditions in four of the six included studies. Conclusions: Findings from the few studies included in this review found a difference in the infant weight gain patterns among expressed human milk-fed infants when compared with their respective feeding groups (directly breastfed or formula-fed). Further research is needed to corroborate these findings and elucidate the clinical significance of the differences in weight gain patterns observed across infant feeding groups.

Weight Loss Treatment and Longitudinal Weight Change Among Primary Care Patients With Obesity.

Importance: Among individuals with obesity, 5% or greater weight loss can improve health. Weight management treatments (WMT) include nutrition counseling, very low-calorie meal replacement (MR), antiobesity medications (AOM), and bariatric surgery; however, little is known about how these WMT are associated with weight change among individual patients and populations. Objective: To characterize weight status and WMT use among primary care patients and assess associations between WMT and weight trajectories. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective, population-based cohort study of primary care patients from 1 academic health system in Michigan between October 2015 and March 2020 using cross-sectional analysis to compare obesity prevalence and WMT utilization. For patients with obesity and WMT exposure or matched controls, a multistate Markov model assessing associations between WMT and longitudinal weight status trajectories was used. Data were analyzed from October 2021 to October 2023. Exposures: Cross-sectional exposure was year: 2017 or 2019. Trajectory analysis exposures were WMT: nutrition counseling, MR, AOM, and bariatric surgery. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cross-sectional analysis compared mean body mass index (BMI), obesity prevalence, and, among patients with obesity, prospective WMT use. The trajectory analysis examined longitudinal weight status using thresholds of ±5% and 10% of baseline weight with primary outcomes being the 1-year probabilities of 5% or greater weight loss for each WMT. Results: Adult patients (146 959 participants) consisted of 83 636 female participants (56.9%); 8940 (6.1%) were Asian, 14 560 (9.9%) were Black, and 116 664 (79.4%) were White. Patients had a mean (SD) age of 49.6 (17.7) years and mean (SD) BMI of 29.2 (7.2). Among 138 682 patients, prevalence of obesity increased from 39.2% in 2017 to 40.7% in 2019; WMT use among patients with obesity increased from 5.3% to 7.1% (difference: 1.7%; 95% CI, 1.3%-2.2%). In a multistate model (10 180 patients; 33 549 patient-years), the 1-year probability of 5% or greater weight loss without WMT exposure was 15.6% (95% CI, 14.3%-16.5%) at reference covariates. In contrast, the probability of 5% or greater weight loss was more likely with year-long exposures to any WMT (nutrition counseling: 23.1%; 95% CI, 21.3%-25.1%; MR: 54.6%; 95% CI, 46.5%-61.2%; AOM: 27.8%; 95% CI, 25.0%-30.5%; bariatric surgery: 93.0%; 95% CI, 89.7%-95.0%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of primary-care patients with obesity, all WMT increased the patient-level probability of achieving 5% or greater weight loss, but current rates of utilization are low and insufficient to reduce weight at the population level.

Associations between marital status and weight loss trajectories entering into early adulthood: a Teen-LABS study.

BACKGROUND: Among adolescents who underwent metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS), it is unclear how relationships and specifically marital status (MS) may be associated with long-term weight loss. OBJECTIVE: In this analysis, we tested for associations between the MS of adolescents who underwent MBS and the MS of their primary caregiver and weight loss trajectory over 8 years. SETTING: Teen-LABS participating sites. METHODS: This sample included 231 participants (75.3% female, 71.4% White, 68.0% Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, 27.7% vertical sleeve gastrectomy, 4.3% laparoscopic adjustable gastric band). A linear mixed model was conducted with the dependent variable percent body mass index (BMI) change from preoperatively through 8 years with between-participant factors (1) participant MS, (2) caregiver MS, and (3) interaction between caregiver and participant MS. RESULTS: One third of participants and 87% of caregivers were ever married (EM). Compared with never-married (NM) participants and caregivers (-14.6%), EM participants and caregivers (-20.6%), EM participants and NM caregivers (-25.9%), and NM participants and EM caregivers (-19.8%), each had significantly greater BMI loss at 8 years (each P < .05). No other group comparisons achieved statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: NM participants with NM caregivers had less favorable long-term BMI. Additional research is needed to better understand how relationships affect behavior change and weight loss after MBS.

Impact of preconception and antenatal supplementation with myo-inositol, probiotics, and micronutrients on offspring BMI and weight gain over the first 2 years.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional intervention preconception and throughout pregnancy has been proposed as an approach to promoting healthy postnatal weight gain in the offspring but few randomised trials have examined this. METHODS: Measurements of weight and length were obtained at multiple time points from birth to 2 years among 576 offspring of women randomised to receive preconception and antenatally either a supplement containing myo-inositol, probiotics, and additional micronutrients (intervention) or a standard micronutrient supplement (control). We examined the influence on age- and sex-standardised BMI at 2 years (WHO standards, adjusting for study site, sex, maternal parity, smoking and pre-pregnancy BMI, and gestational age), together with the change in weight, length, BMI from birth, and weight gain trajectories using latent class growth analysis. RESULTS: At 2 years, there was a trend towards lower mean BMI among intervention offspring (adjusted mean difference [aMD] - 0.14 SD [95% CI 0.30, 0.02], p = 0.09), and fewer had a BMI > 95th percentile (i.e. > 1.65 SD, 9.2% vs 18.0%, adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 0.51 [95% CI 0.31, 0.82], p = 0.006). Longitudinal data revealed that intervention offspring had a 24% reduced risk of experiencing rapid weight gain > 0.67 SD in the first year of life (21.9% vs 31.1%, aRR 0.76 [95% CI 0.58, 1.00], p = 0.047). The risk was likewise decreased for sustained weight gain > 1.34 SD in the first 2 years of life (7.7% vs 17.1%, aRR 0.55 [95% CI 0.34, 0.88], p = 0.014). From five weight gain trajectories identified, there were more intervention offspring in the "normal" weight gain trajectory characterised by stable weight SDS around 0 SD from birth to 2 years (38.8% vs 30.1%, RR 1.29 [95% CI 1.03, 1.62], p = 0.029). CONCLUSIONS: Supplementation with myo-inositol, probiotics, and additional micronutrients preconception and in pregnancy reduced the incidence of rapid weight gain and obesity at 2 years among offspring. Previous reports suggest these effects will likely translate to health benefits, but longer-term follow-up is needed to evaluate this. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02509988 (Universal Trial Number U1111-1171-8056). Registered on 16 July 2015.

Does faster weight trajectory lead to improved neurodevelopmental outcomes in ELBW infants with bronchopulmonary dysplasia?

OBJECTIVE: Examine the relationship between weight trajectory and 2-year neurodevelopmental outcomes for extremely low birthweight (ELBW) infants with BPD. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analysis of infants born from 2010 to 2019. The predictor was BPD severity and the outcome was neurodevelopmental impairment, defined as any Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID) III score <70 at 24 months' corrected age. Repeated measures logistic regression was performed. RESULTS: In total, 5042 infants were included. Faster weight trajectory was significantly associated with a decreased probability of having at least one BSID III score <70 for infants with grade 1-2 BPD (p < 0.0001) and an increased probability of at least one BSID III score <70 for infants with grade 3 BPD (p < 0.009). There was no significant association between weight trajectory and BSID III score <70 for infants with grade 0 BPD. CONCLUSION: The association between postnatal weight trajectory and neurodevelopmental outcome in this study differs by BPD severity.

Impact of weight loss and weight gain trajectories on body composition in a population at high risk of type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort analysis.

AIM: In a primary care population at high risk of type 2 diabetes, 24-month weight change trajectories were used to investigate the impact of weight cycling on fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cohort data from the Walking Away from Type 2 Diabetes trial was used, which recruited adults at-risk of type 2 diabetes from primary care in 2009/10. Annual weight change trajectories based on weight loss/gain of ≥5% were assessed over two 24-month periods. Body composition was measured by bioelectrical impedance analysis. Repeated measures were analysed using generalized estimating equations with participants contributing up to two 24-month observation periods. RESULTS: In total, 622 participants were included (average age = 63.6 years, body mass index = 32.0 kg/m2 , 35.4% women), contributing 1163 observations. Most observations (69.2%) were from those that maintained their body weight, with no change to FM or FFM. A minority (4.6% of observations) lost over 5% of body weight between baseline and 12 months, which was then regained between 12 and 24 months. These individuals regained FM to baseline levels, but lost 1.50 (0.66, 2.35) kg FFM, adjusted for confounders. In contrast, those that gained weight between baseline and 12 months but lost weight between 12 and 24 months (5.5% of observations) had a net gain in FM of 1.70 (0.27, 3.12) kg with no change to FFM. CONCLUSION: Weight cycling may be associated with a progressive loss in FFM and/or gain in FM in those with overweight and obesity at-risk of type 2 diabetes.

Is weight trajectory a better marker of wound complication risk than BMI in hernia patients with obesity?

BACKGROUND: Complex ventral hernias are frequently repaired via an open transversus abdominis release (TAR). Obesity, particularly a BMI > 40, is a strong predictor of wound morbidity following this procedure. We aimed to determine if preoperative weight loss may still be beneficial in patients with persistently elevated BMIs. METHODS: A retrospective chart review of patients with obesity (BMI ≥ 30) who underwent open TAR at a tertiary academic medical center from January 2018 to December 2021 was completed. Demographics, medical history, operative details, and postoperative data were analyzed. Weight and BMI were recorded at three time points: > 6 months prior to initial surgical consultation, surgical consultation, and day of surgery. RESULTS: In total, 182 patients with obesity underwent an open TAR. Twenty-seven patients (14.8%) underwent surgery with a BMI > 40; they did not have any significant differences in surgical site occurrences (SSO, 48.1% vs 32.9%, p = 0.13) or surgical site infections (SSI, 25.9% vs 23.2%, p = 0.76) compared to those with a BMI ≤ 40. The average timeframe analyzed for preoperative weight loss was 592 days. Patients who had at least a 3% weight loss (n = 49, 26.9%) had decreased rates of SSI compared to those who did not have this weight loss (12.2% vs 27.8%, p = 0.03), despite the groups having similar BMIs at the time of surgery (36.4 vs 36.0, p = 0.50). Patients who only had a 1% weight loss did not see a decrease in SSI rate compared to those who did not (20.6% vs 25.4%, p = 0.45). CONCLUSION: Weight loss may be a better indicator of a patient's risk for wound morbidity following TAR than BMI alone, as weight loss of at least 3% resulted in fewer SSIs despite similar BMIs at time of surgery. Further research into optimal timing and amount of weight loss, as well as effects on long-term outcomes, is needed to confirm these findings.

Exploring the Interaction Between Preschool Executive Control and Caregiver Emotion Socialization in Predicting Adolescent Weight Trajectories.

There is a critical need for research examining how neural vulnerabilities associated with obesity, including lower executive control, interact with family factors to impact weight trajectories across adolescence. Utilizing a longitudinal design, the present study investigated caregivers' emotion socialization practices as a moderator of the association between preschool executive control and adolescent body mass index (BMI) trajectories. Participants were 229 youth (Mage = 5.24, SD = 0.03; 47.2% assigned female at birth; 73.8% White, 3.9% Black, 0.4% Asian American, 21.8% multiracial; 12.7% Hispanic) enrolled in a longitudinal study. At preschool-age, participants completed performance-based executive control tasks, and their caregivers reported on their typical emotion-related socialization behaviors (i.e., supportive and nonsupportive responses to children's negative emotions). Participants returned for annual laboratory visits at ages 14 through 17, during which their height and weight were measured to calculate BMI. Although neither preschool executive control nor caregiver emotion-related socialization behaviors were directly associated with BMI growth in adolescence, supportive responses moderated the association between executive control and BMI trajectories. The expected negative association between lower preschool executive control and greater BMI growth was present at below average levels of supportive responses, suggesting that external regulation afforded by supportive responses might reduce risk for adolescent overweight and obesity among children with lower internal self-regulatory resources during preschool. Findings highlight the importance of efforts to bolster executive control early in development and targeted interventions to promote effective caregiver emotion socialization (i.e., more supportive responses) for youth with lower internal self-regulatory abilities to mitigate risk for overweight and obesity and promote health across childhood and adolescence.

Maternal weight trajectories and associations with infant growth in South African women.

BACKGROUND: Despite the close relationship between pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), gestational weight gain (GWG) and postpartum weight (PPW), these factors are often studied separately. There are no data characterising longitudinal weight trajectories among pregnant and postpartum women in urban African populations. We examined maternal weight trajectories from pregnancy through to 12 months postpartum, factors associated with higher weight trajectory class membership and associations of weight trajectories with infant growth at 12 months. METHODS: Data from 989 women were examined for weight trajectories from first antenatal care visit in pregnancy to 12 months postpartum using latent-class growth models. Baseline factors associated with class membership were assessed using multinomial logistic regression. Of the enrolled women, 613 of their infants were assessed for growth at 12 months. Anthropometry measurements for mothers and infants were conducted by a trained study nurse. Associations between maternal weight trajectory class and infant weight-for-age (WAZ), length-for-age (LAZ), weight-for-length (WLZ) at 12 months of age were analysed using linear regression. RESULTS: Four distinct classes of maternal weight trajectories were identified. The classes included consistent low (29%), consistent medium (37%), medium-high (24%) and consistent high (10%) trajectories. Similar to trends observed with medium-high trajectory, baseline factors positively associated with consistent high class membership included age (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.09), pre-pregnancy BMI (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.97-2.56), stage 1 hypertension (OR 3.28, 95% CI 1.68-6.41), haemoglobin levels (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.11-1.74) and parity (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.15-1.67); living with HIV (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.30-0.74) was inversely associated. In adjusted analyses, compared to consistent medium weight trajectory, consistent low weight trajectory (mean difference -0.41, 95% CI -0.71;-0.12) was associated with decreased, and consistent high weight trajectory (mean difference 1.21, 95% CI 0.59-1.83) with increased infant WAZ at 12 months of age. CONCLUSION: Identification of unique longitudinal weight trajectory groupings might inform comprehensive efforts targeted at improving healthy maternal weight and infant outcomes.

Body shape trajectories are associated with birth weight, body mass index and sociodemographic conditions in participants of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil): a multiple correspondence analysis.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating lifelong weight trajectories is challenging due to the high costs of studies that follow individuals from childhood to adulthood. The use of silhouette scales has been a new approach to assess the body shape trajectory across life as a proxy for body weight trajectory. Depending on body shape trajectories, individuals may be more prone to develop diseases in adulthood. Therefore, identifying factors related to them is essential for public health. This study aimed to evaluate body shape trajectories across the lifespan and to verify associations between them, birth weight, body mass index, and sociodemographic conditions in a Brazilian cohort. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional analysis conducted with 14,014 participants of first follow-up data collection of Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). ELSA-Brasil is a multicentric prospective cohort study initiated in 2008 with civil servants of six public institutions in the Northeast, South and Southeast regions of Brazil. We applied a clustering method to longitudinal data to identify body shape trajectories from 5 to 40 years of age and assessed the associations between these trajectories and birth weight, body mass index and sociodemographic conditions (race, education, maternal education and monthly per capita family income) using multiple correspondence analysis. RESULTS: We found five body shape trajectories for women and three for men. Low birth weight was associated with a slight to moderate increase in shape. High birth weight was associated with maintaining large body size in both sexes and markedly increased body shape in women. Higher sociodemographic status and white race were associated with marked increases in body shape in men and maintenance of medium body shape in women. CONCLUSIONS: The study shows that variables related to worse lifetime weight status (evaluated by anthropometry), such as presence of obesity, are also associated with worse body shape trajectories, as assessed with silhouette scales. Our results suggest that body shape trajectories are a good indicator of body weight trajectories and may be used when cohort studies are not possible.

Maternal and child nutrition programme of investigation within the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort: study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: There is a limited understanding of the early nutrition and pregnancy determinants of short-term and long-term maternal and child health in ethnically diverse and socioeconomically vulnerable populations within low-income and middle-income countries. This investigation programme aims to: (1) describe maternal weight trajectories throughout the life course; (2) describe child weight, height and body mass index (BMI) trajectories; (3) create and validate models to predict childhood obesity at 5 years of age; (4) estimate the effects of prepregnancy BMI, gestational weight gain (GWG) and maternal weight trajectories on adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes and child growth trajectories; (5) estimate the effects of prepregnancy BMI, GWG, maternal weight and interpregnancy BMI changes on maternal and child outcomes in the subsequent pregnancy; and (6) estimate the effects of maternal food consumption and infant feeding practices on child nutritional status and growth trajectories. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Linked data from four different Brazilian databases will be used: the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort, the Live Births Information System, the Mortality Information System and the Food and Nutrition Surveillance System. To analyse trajectories, latent-growth, superimposition by translation and rotation and broken stick models will be used. To create prediction models for childhood obesity, machine learning techniques will be applied. For the association between the selected exposure and outcomes variables, generalised linear models will be considered. Directed acyclic graphs will be constructed to identify potential confounders for each analysis investigating potential causal relationships. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol was approved by the Research Ethics Committees of the authors' institutions. The linkage will be carried out in a secure environment. After the linkage, the data will be de-identified, and pre-authorised researchers will access the data set via a virtual private network connection. Results will be reported in open-access journals and disseminated to policymakers and the broader public.

Prenatal ambient air pollution exposure and child weight trajectories from the 3rd trimester of pregnancy to 2 years of age: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal air pollution exposure may increase risk for childhood obesity. However, few studies have evaluated in utero growth measures and infant weight trajectories. This study will evaluate the associations of prenatal exposure to ambient air pollutants with weight trajectories from the 3rd trimester through age 2 years. METHODS: We studied 490 pregnant women who were recruited from the Maternal and Development Risks from Environmental and Social Stressors (MADRES) cohort, which comprises a low-income, primarily Hispanic population in Los Angeles, California. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter < 10 µm (PM10), particulate matter < 2.5 µm (PM2.5), and ozone (O3) concentrations during pregnancy were estimated from regulatory air monitoring stations. Fetal weight was estimated from maternal ultrasound records. Infant/child weight measurements were extracted from medical records or measured during follow-up visits. Piecewise spline models were used to assess the effect of air pollutants on weight, overall growth, and growth during each period. RESULTS: The mean (SD) prenatal exposure concentrations for NO2, PM2.5, PM10, and O3 were 16.4 (2.9) ppb, 12.0 (1.1) µg/m3, 28.5 (4.7) µg/m3, and 26.2 (2.9) ppb, respectively. Comparing an increase in prenatal average air pollutants from the 10th to the 90th percentile, the growth rate from the 3rd trimester to age 3 months was significantly increased (1.55% [95%CI 1.20%, 1.99%] for PM2.5 and 1.64% [95%CI 1.27%, 2.13%] for NO2), the growth rate from age 6 months to age 2 years was significantly decreased (0.90% [95%CI 0.82%, 1.00%] for NO2), and the attained weight at age 2 years was significantly lower (- 7.50% [95% CI - 13.57%, - 1.02%] for PM10 and - 7.00% [95% CI - 11.86%, - 1.88%] for NO2). CONCLUSIONS: Prenatal ambient air pollution was associated with variable changes in growth rate and attained weight from the 3rd trimester to age 2 years. These results suggest continued public health benefits of reducing ambient air pollution levels, particularly in marginalized populations.

Weight trajectories and obesity remission among school-aged children.

BACKGROUND: Many studies examining weight trajectories have used adiposity measures shown to be problematic for trajectory analysis in children with obesity, and remission of obesity remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: To describe weight trajectories for school-aged children, the rate of obesity remission and factors associated. METHODS: Children between 6 and 11 years of age with ≥3 valid height and weight measurements from an Oregon hospital-system over a minimum six-month period were included. Percent distance from the median body mass index (BMI) was used for modeling. Latent class analysis and linear mixed models were used to classify children based on their weight trajectory. RESULTS: We included 11,247 subjects with a median of 2.1 years of follow-up, with 1,614 (14.4%) classified as overweight and 1,794 (16.0%) classified as obese. Of subjects with obesity, 1% experienced remission during follow-up, whereas 23% of those with overweight moved to within a healthy weight range. Latent class analysis identified three classes within each weight-based stratum over time. The majority of children with overweight or obesity had a flat trajectory over time. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with a worsening trajectory. Latent class models using alternate measures (BMI, BMI z-scores, tri-ponderal mass index (TMI)) differed substantially from each other. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity remission was uncommon using the adiposity metric of distance from the median though transition from overweight to healthy weight was more common. Children with low socioeconomic status have worse trajectories overall. The choice of adiposity metric may have a substantial effect on the outcomes.

Development and validation of an interpretable machine learning-based calculator for predicting 5-year weight trajectories after bariatric surgery: a multinational retrospective cohort SOPHIA study.

BACKGROUND: Weight loss trajectories after bariatric surgery vary widely between individuals, and predicting weight loss before the operation remains challenging. We aimed to develop a model using machine learning to provide individual preoperative prediction of 5-year weight loss trajectories after surgery. METHODS: In this multinational retrospective observational study we enrolled adult participants (aged ≥18 years) from ten prospective cohorts (including ABOS [NCT01129297], BAREVAL [NCT02310178], the Swedish Obese Subjects study, and a large cohort from the Dutch Obesity Clinic [Nederlandse Obesitas Kliniek]) and two randomised trials (SleevePass [NCT00793143] and SM-BOSS [NCT00356213]) in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, with a 5 year follow-up after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, sleeve gastrectomy, or gastric band. Patients with a previous history of bariatric surgery or large delays between scheduled and actual visits were excluded. The training cohort comprised patients from two centres in France (ABOS and BAREVAL). The primary outcome was BMI at 5 years. A model was developed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to select variables and the classification and regression trees algorithm to build interpretable regression trees. The performances of the model were assessed through the median absolute deviation (MAD) and root mean squared error (RMSE) of BMI. FINDINGS: 10 231 patients from 12 centres in ten countries were included in the analysis, corresponding to 30 602 patient-years. Among participants in all 12 cohorts, 7701 (75·3%) were female, 2530 (24·7%) were male. Among 434 baseline attributes available in the training cohort, seven variables were selected: height, weight, intervention type, age, diabetes status, diabetes duration, and smoking status. At 5 years, across external testing cohorts the overall mean MAD BMI was 2·8 kg/m2 (95% CI 2·6-3·0) and mean RMSE BMI was 4·7 kg/m2 (4·4-5·0), and the mean difference between predicted and observed BMI was -0·3 kg/m2 (SD 4·7). This model is incorporated in an easy to use and interpretable web-based prediction tool to help inform clinical decision before surgery. INTERPRETATION: We developed a machine learning-based model, which is internationally validated, for predicting individual 5-year weight loss trajectories after three common bariatric interventions. FUNDING: SOPHIA Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking, supported by the EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations, Type 1 Diabetes Exchange, and the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation and Obesity Action Coalition; Métropole Européenne de Lille; Agence Nationale de la Recherche; Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies du numérique through the Artificial Intelligence chair Apprenf; Université de Lille Nord Europe's I-SITE EXPAND as part of the Bandits For Health project; Laboratoire d'excellence European Genomic Institute for Diabetes; Soutien aux Travaux Interdisciplinaires, Multi-établissements et Exploratoires programme by Conseil Régional Hauts-de-France (volet partenarial phase 2, project PERSO-SURG).

Lifetime Body Weight Trajectories and Risk of Renal Cell Cancer: A Large U.S. Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Body mass index (BMI) is a known risk factor for renal cell cancer (RCC), but data are limited as to the effect of lifetime exposure to excess body weight. METHODS: Using the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (N = 138,614, 527 incident RCCs), we identified several anthropometric measures to capture the lifetime BMI patterns: (i) BMI at specific ages; (ii) adulthood BMI trajectories; (iii) cumulative exposure to overweight/obesity denoted as weighted years of living overweight/obese (WYO); and (iv) weight change during each age span. We conducted multivariable Cox model to quantify the association between each anthropometric metric and incident RCC. RESULTS: A higher BMI at ages 20 and 50 and at baseline was associated with a greater hazard of RCC. Compared with individuals who retained normal BMI throughout adulthood, we observed an increased hazard of RCC for BMI trajectory of progressing from normal BMI to overweight [HR, 1.49; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.19-1.87], from normal BMI to obesity (HR, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.70-2.90), and from overweight to obesity (HR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.81-4.27). Compared with individuals who were never overweight (WYO = 0), elevated HRs were observed among individuals who experienced low (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.99-1.74), medium (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.20-2.05), and high (HR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.62-2.72) WYO tertile. Weight gain of ≥10 kg was associated with increased RCC incidence for each age span. CONCLUSIONS: Across the lifespan, being overweight/obese, weight gain, and higher cumulative exposure to excess weight were all associated with increased RCC risk. IMPACT: It is important to avoid weight gain and assess BMI from a life-course perspective to reduce RCC risk.

Newborn weight nomograms in selected low and middle-income countries.

Growth impairment is common in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) and may begin during early infancy, increasing morbidity and mortality. To ensure healthy infant growth, healthcare providers in high-income countries (HIC) track newborn weight change using tools developed and validated in HIC. To understand the utility of these tools for LMIC, we conducted a secondary analysis to compare weight trajectories in the first 5 days of life among newborns born in our LMIC cohort to an existing HIC newborn weight tool designed to track early weight change. Between April 2019 and March 2020, a convenience sample of 741 singleton healthy breastfeeding newborns who weighed ≥ 2000 g at birth were enrolled at selected health facilities in Guinea-Bissau, Nepal, Pakistan, and Uganda. Using a standardized protocol, newborn weights were obtained within 6 h of birth and at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 days, and nomograms depicting newborn weight change were generated. The trajectories of early newborn weight change in our cohort were largely similar to published norms derived from HIC infants, with the exceptions that initial newborn weight loss in Guinea-Bissau was more pronounced than HIC norms and newborn weight gain following weight nadir was more pronounced in Guinea-Bissau, Pakistan, and Uganda than HIC norms. These data demonstrate that HIC newborn weight change tools may have utility in LMIC settings.

Trajectory of blood pressure levels and weight gain in pregnant women: A group-based approach.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Morbidities associated with increased blood pressure levels during pregnancy represent one of the main causes of maternal mortality. The objective was to identify patterns of systolic blood pressure (SPB) trajectory in pregnant women undergoing prenatal care at the Unified Health System, and associations with weight gain trajectory, demographic, obstetric, anthropometric data, and health related behaviors. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cohort study with pregnant women using the public health services in Brazil. Data were collected through questionnaires and medical records. Trajectory patterns of SBP and weight gain were identified by a group-based trajectory model. For trajectory analysis, 460 women had SBP information available, totaling 2839 measurements, with an average of 6.2 measurements during pregnancy. Three SBP trajectory patterns were identified and classified as "Group 1" (48.0%), with a mean of 103 mmHg (95% CI 102.5-103.7 mmHg), "Group 2" (42.7%) with a mean of 114 mmHg (95% CI 113.7-114.9 mmHg), and "Group 3" (9.1%) with the highest mean SBP value of 130 mmHg (95% CI 128.8-131.5 mmHg). It was observed that regardless of the weight gain trajectory group, women classified in the group with the highest SBP had the highest SBP levels. The probability of being classified in Group 3 was higher among women with higher education, who started pregnancy presenting obesity, and who were using antihypertensive drugs. CONCLUSION: The probability of belonging to groups with a greater trajectory of SBP during pregnancy was associated with obesity, education, and hypertension under treatment.

Maternal weight latent trajectories and associations with adverse pregnancy outcomes using a smoothing mixture model.

Class membership is a critical issue in health data sciences. Different types of statistical models have been widely applied to identify participants within a population with heterogeneous longitudinal trajectories. This study aims to identify latent longitudinal trajectories of maternal weight associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes using smoothing mixture model (SMM). Data were collected from the Khuzestan Vitamin D Deficiency Screening Program in Pregnancy. We applied the data of 877 pregnant women living in Shooshtar city, whose weights during the nine months of pregnancy were available. In the first step, maternal weight was classified and participants were assigned to only one group for which the estimated trajectory is the most similar to the observed one using SMM; then, we examined the associations of identified trajectories with risk of adverse pregnancy endpoints by applying logistic regression. Three latent trajectories for maternal weight during pregnancy were identified and named as low, medium and high weight trajectories. Crude estimated odds ratio (OR) for icterus, preterm delivery, NICU admission and composite neonatal events shows significantly higher risks in trajectory 1 (low weight) compared to trajectory 2 (medium weight) by 69% (OR = 1.69, 95%CI 1.20, 2.39), 82% (OR = 1.82, 95%CI 1.14, 2.87), 77% (OR = 1.77, 95%CI 1.17, 2.43), and 85% (OR = 1.85, 95%CI 1.38, 2.76), respectively. Latent class trajectories of maternal weights can be accurately estimated using SMM. It is a powerful means for researchers to appropriately assign individuals to their class. The U-shaped curve of association between maternal weight gain and risk of maternal complications reveals that the optimum place for pregnant women could be in the middle of the growth curve to minimize the risks. Low maternal weight trajectory compared to high had even a significantly higher hazard for some neonatal adverse events. Therefore, appropriate weight gain is critical for pregnant women.Trial registration International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 2014102519660N1; http://www.irct.ir/searchresult.php?keyword=&id=19660&number=1&prt=7805&total=10&m=1 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6p3lkqFdV ).

The Influence of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms On Body Weight Trajectory After Bariatric Surgery: A Systematic Review.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To conduct a systematic review to summarize the results of studies on this subject and to identify whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are good prognostic markers for body weight trajectory after bariatric surgery. RECENT FINDINGS: A considerable number of events can influence the body weight trajectory after bariatric surgery, and in the post-genomic era, genetic factors have been explored. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021240903). SNPs positively associated with poor weight loss after bariatric surgery were rs17702901, rs9939609, rs1360780, rs1126535, rs1137101, rs17782313, rs490683, and rs659366. Alternatively, SNPs rs2229616, rs5282087, rs490683, rs9819506, rs4771122, rs9939609, rs4846567, rs9930506, rs3813929, rs738409, rs696217, rs660339, rs659366, rs6265, rs1801260, and rs2419621 predicted a higher weight loss after bariatric surgery. Six studies performed with a genetic risk score (GRS) model presented significant associations between GRS and outcomes following bariatric surgery. This systematic review shows that, different SNPs and genetic models could be good predictors for body weight trajectory after bariatric surgery. Based on the results of the selected studies for this Systematic Review is possible to select SNPs and metabolic pathways of interest for the GRS construction to predict the outcome of bariatric surgery to be applied in future studies.